Tropical Storm Jose could impact the Midcoast next week

Storm expected to regain hurricane strength
By Chief Meteorologist Tyler Southard | Sep 15, 2017
A visible satellite view of Jose Friday afternoon.

This weekend will be the calm before the storm, but how much storm we see is still up in the air (so to speak).

As of Friday afternoon, Tropical Storm Jose was located ~350 miles northeast of the Bahamas and moving northwest. The once major hurricane, reaching category 4 status, has been slowly weakening this week but latest observations Friday show some restrengthening with the storm and an eye beginning to form again. Jose is expected to become a category 1 hurricane later in the day Friday as it encounters more favorable conditions. After completing a loop this past week, the forecast takes the storm north along the east coast during the weekend but far enough offshore to have minor impacts to the mainland. By Tuesday morning the storm center is forecast to be off the Mid Atlantic coast with the outer bands of rain moving into the coast of Maine through the day. Jose is expected to weaken into a tropical storm into Wednesday morning as it nears Southern New England and then turns northeast and then east through the colder Gulf of Maine Wednesday before clearing into Thursday.

The impacts are likely to resemble those of a strong fall nor'easter for the Midcoast with gusty winds, heavy rain, and high surf. Preliminary rainfall estimates show between 1.5" to 2.5" of rain possible with this storm if it stays on its current forecast track which would bring some relief to the drought conditions that have developed over the summer. At their peak, north winds would become sustained between 20-30mph with gusts up to 60mph for the Midcoast on Wednesday. A track further north and west could bring stronger winds while a track further south or east would lessen these impacts. Seas will increase along the coast through Tuesday and peak Wednesday as the storm center passes through the Gulf. Waves for the northern Gulf of Maine could rise between 10 to 15 feet and approach near 20 feet near the central and southern Gulf. The high surf could also create rip tides and coastal erosion with astronomically high tides expected during this period.

This storm is still 4 to 5 days out so things can and will change with the forecast track and strength of this storm so this will need to be monitored closely through the weekend. You can begin to make a plan to protect your belongings from the high wind and heavy rain now to insure you are ready if action does need to be taken. This is especially important to keep boats and marine equipment safe. Power outages and minor flooding may be possible during this period. Hurricanes have made big headlines after the last few weeks with Harvey and Irma, but Jose is much weaker and will have very little impact in comparison.

Official forecast track for Jose as of 11am Friday morning. (Photo by: National Hurricane Center)
Each line in this image represents a different weather forecast model. As of Friday there is a good consensus to take the storm near southern New England then through the southern Gulf of Maine.
Forecast models are consistent strengthening the storm into a category 1 hurricane for the weekend and early next week before weakening into a tropical storm into the mid week.
This forecast model shows a depiction of the wind field a couple thousand feet up in the atmosphere on Wednesday afternoon.
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